Most restaurants do not fail because the food is bad. They fail because the cost structure cannot support the rent. The cure is to model the ratios before you sign — especially prime cost, the single number that decides survival.

Prime cost is the master KPI

Prime cost = food cost + labor cost, as a share of sales. It excludes rent and overhead, so it isolates the two biggest costs you actually control day to day. Healthy bands by segment (verified 2026):

SegmentFood costLaborTarget prime cost
Quick-service (QSR)25-32%25-30%45-55%
Fast casual27-36%24-35%53-68%
Casual / full-service28-40%28-40%58-74% (aim 60-65%)
Fine dining30-44%32-46%64-82% (premium model)
Cafe & bakery22-35%26-38%50-66%
Rule of thumb: hold full-service prime cost at 60-65% of sales. Every point above that is roughly 1% of revenue lost to rent, utilities, and profit. A 68% prime cost can be structurally unprofitable even with strong sales.

Rent and occupancy

Occupancy cost (rent all-in) above ~10% of sales is the widely used red line for small restaurants; full-service often targets 6-10%. At 12%+ it is a structural problem you cannot discount your way out of.

Startup capital by format

FormatTotal opening rangeBuild-out $/SF
Food truck$50K-$200Kn/a (vehicle + kitchen)
Bakery$20K-$100K$20-$150
Coffee / cafe$80K-$300K$50-$450
QSR / fast casual$150K-$500K$100-$450
Full-service$300K-$750K+$150-$450
Fine dining$500K-$1.5M+$200-$450

Traps that sink openings

  • Under-capitalization. Hold 3-6 months of operating cash on top of build-out and first inventory.
  • Ignoring employer payroll tax. Wages are not the full labor cost — FICA, SUTA, FUTA, and workers' comp add ~15-25% on top.
  • Leasing on base rent only. NNN load adds 20-40%. See the NNN lease guide.
  • Weak location math. Walk traffic at different hours before you commit; a pretty corner that cannot clear your daily minimum revenue will not improve.

Use the Startup Viability Calculator to size capital and the daily revenue floor, then stress-test a conservative ramp.

Sources (retrieved 2026-08-13): National Restaurant Association operations research; costlab.ai prime-cost benchmarks; papaya restaurant margin benchmarks by segment; startup cost summaries citing SBA 2025 ranges; RestaurantLaunchpad food-truck cost data.